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May 16, 2024 1:31 PM UTC
April industrial production was unchanged with a downward revision to March offset by an upward revision to February. Manufacturing was weak at -0.3% though outside a negative correction in autos the drop was only 0.1%, leaving a fairly flat underlying picture.
May 15, 2024 10:34 AM UTC
Revised national account data confirmed the upside surprise in the preliminary data with EZ GDP rising 0.3% q/q. The question is whether this emergence from the modest H2 2023 recession is the start of more sustained momentum. We think not, mainly due to what are still weak consumer fundamentals
May 10, 2024 2:12 PM UTC
May’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 67.4 from 77.2 is the weakest since November 2023 and hints at a loss of momentum in the economy, but with higher inflation expectations, the 1-year view up significantly to 3.5% from 3.2% and the 5-10 year view up marginally to 3.1% from 3.0%.
May 9, 2024 6:11 PM UTC
April's CPI data, despite a 0.2% m/m growth, reveals a significant y/y uptick to 4.6% from March's 4.4%, challenging norms due to electricity tariff adjustments. Core CPI maintained stability with a 0.2% increase, while Core Goods CPI rose by 0.3% and Services CPI by 0.1%, accumulating a 5.2% y/y gr
May 8, 2024 8:24 AM UTC
It very much seemed to be a question of when, not if, as far as policy easing is concerned for the Riksbank. In this regard, albeit surprising in terms of timing, the Riksbank delivered, cutting its policy rate by 25 bp (to 3.75%), despite clear concerns it has flagged about recent and continued k
May 1, 2024 8:09 AM UTC
It seems to be a question of when, not if as far as policy easing is concerned. Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its last decision
April 30, 2024 9:29 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy was in recession in H2 last year, albeit modestly so and against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences. This geographical variation continued into Q1 (Figure 1) where the flash GDP reading exceeded ex
April 29, 2024 12:38 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
April 25, 2024 6:24 AM UTC
In the period of time when JPY significantly weakens or strengthens, BoJ will intervene in the FX market either through verbal or actual intervention. As JPY weakened significantly in the past months, once again we found ourselves in the proximity of FX intervention with unknowns for anonymity is ke
April 24, 2024 11:06 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy was in recession in H2 last year, albeit modestly so and against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences. This geographical variation is likely to have continued into Q1 (Figure 1) where we see a flat o
April 23, 2024 9:43 AM UTC
Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling EZ HICP inflation and somewhat broadly so. This continued in the March HICP numbers, with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being a notch more sizeable than most anticipated. Regardless,
April 22, 2024 12:58 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
April 17, 2024 6:52 AM UTC
UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months, the former having peaked above 10% in February last year and the latter at 7.1% In May. After a pause in the preceding three months, this downtrend seemingly resumed in the February CPI numbers and clearl
April 16, 2024 1:34 PM UTC
March industrial production with a 0.4% increase was in line with expectations though manufacturing with a rise of 0.5% exceeded expectations and there appears to be some underlying improvement there.
April 15, 2024 12:35 PM UTC
India's inflation trajectory in March 2024 showcased divergent trends in both consumer and wholesale price indices. While consumer inflation dipped to its lowest in ten months at 4.9% y/y, wholesale inflation rose to 0.5% y/y, driven by surging food prices. The outlook suggests gradual WPI escalatio
April 12, 2024 2:13 PM UTC
April’s preliminary Michigan CSI of 77.9 is down from March’s 79.4 but still above February’s 76.5 and generally healthy. Inflation expectations moved higher, the 1-year view to 3.1% from 2.9% and the 5-10 year view to 3.0% from 2.8%, its highest since November.
April 11, 2024 1:58 PM UTC
Surprising hardly anyone, the ECB is preparing to cut official rates, after what are now five successive stable policy decisions. It explicitly suggested that it could be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction, a policy hint backed up by dropping its previous rhetoric
April 9, 2024 6:43 PM UTC
Mexico's March CPI data, released by the National Statistics Institute, shows a slight increase of 0.29%, below the 0.36% expectation. Year-on-year CPI remains stable at 4.4%, above Banxico's 3.0% target. While fruit and vegetable prices dropped, transport costs rose. Concerns arise with Services CP
April 4, 2024 1:18 PM UTC
We expect a 230k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, which would be in line with the 6-month average but slightly below the 3-month. We expect a correction lower in unemployment to 3.8% from 3.9% and a moderate 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
April 3, 2024 9:34 AM UTC
Very much having affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of falling inflation and somewhat broadly so. This continued in the March HICP numbers, with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being a notch more sizeable than most anticipated. Regardless, the hea
April 2, 2024 12:19 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings, but the March data came in a notch below expectations for a third successive month. Indeed, it fell from 2.7% to a 33-month low of 2.3% in the March HICP data, dominated by a clear fall in food inflati
April 1, 2024 6:36 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in March’s PPI, with a 0.2% increase ex food and energy, the latter slowing from above trend increases of 0.3% in February and 0.5% in January, though this would still be stronger than each month from August through December of 2023.
March 27, 2024 1:25 PM UTC
Enough to have affected ECB thinking, there has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of plunging inflation. This continued in the February numbers, albeit with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being less that most anticipated. Regardless, the headline, at 2.6%, continued its recent
March 27, 2024 9:58 AM UTC
Even at it previous policy assessment in February it was clear(er) that the Riksbank accepted that it could and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. But its latest decision, again keeping the policy rate at 4%, and no change to the pace of bond sales,
March 26, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
We expect a 230k increase in March’s non-farm payroll, which would be in line with the 6-month average but slightly below the 3-month. We expect a correction lower in unemployment to 3.8% from 3.9% and a moderate 0.3% increase in average hourly earnings.
March 20, 2024 7:44 AM UTC
UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months the former having peaked above 10% in February and the latter at 7.1% In May. However, this trend surprisingly stalled in December as the headline rate rose a notch to 4.0%, up from a 27-month low of 3.9%,
March 18, 2024 4:20 PM UTC
It is ever clearer that the Riksbank has accepted that it can and should make its policy stance less contractionary, at least in conventional terms. In its last decision, at the start of February, keeping policy at 4%, albeit increasing the pace of bond sales from SEK 5 billion to 6.5 billion per
March 14, 2024 10:23 AM UTC
It would be something of a shock if the BoE was to vote to do anything but keep policy on hold when the MPC gives its next verdict on Mar 21. More likely than not there will be no further dissents in favor of a further hike, merely one again calling for a cut. But despite recent CPI underlying f
March 13, 2024 1:54 PM UTC
We expect a 0.3% increase in February’s PPI, matching January’s increase, but with 0.2% increases in the core rates ex food and energy and ex food, energy and trade, slowing from above trend January increases of 0.5% and 0.6% respectively as the New Year saw what we expect to be one-time price h
March 13, 2024 3:17 AM UTC
Our central forecast is for the BoJ to change forward guidance in March, indicating trend inflation will be achieving target and ultra-ease monetary policy is no longer necessary and hike interest rate to 0% in April as wage growth has accelerated and the latest wage negotiation is likely to ensure
March 11, 2024 10:59 AM UTC
UK headline and core inflation have been on a clear downward trajectory in the last few months the former having peaked above 10% in February and the latter at 7.1% In May. However, this trend surprisingly stalled in December as the headline rate rose a notch to 4.0%, up from a 27-month low of 3.9%,
March 7, 2024 10:16 PM UTC
The February CPI figures released by Mexico's National Institute of Statistics and Geography show a slight 0.1% increase, aligning with expectations. Year-on-year CPI dropped to 4.4%, ending a three-month rise. Food and Beverages notably fell by 1.3%, while Housing and Transports saw positive growth
March 7, 2024 2:35 PM UTC
After two straight very strong non-farm payroll gains exceeding 300k we expect a 200k increase in February’s non-farm payroll, which is where trend was before the recent acceleration. We expect an unchanged unemployment rate of 3.7% to show the labor market remains tight, but average hourly earnin
March 6, 2024 2:53 PM UTC
Chancellor Hunt’s Budget today was an even clearer politically driven affair. Hence the focus on offering alleged tax cuts, all framed as helping boost growth potential but where the tax as a share of GDP is forecast to rise to a post-war record 37.1% of GDP in 2028-29. The political question
March 5, 2024 11:34 AM UTC
Coming in lower than expected after taking account of downward revisions, and probably hit by industrial action, GDP shrank by 0.1% m/m in December data, a result that reflected the plunge in retail sales and abnormal weather that meant a Q4 drop in GDP and consumer spending. We see stagnation in
March 4, 2024 10:45 AM UTC
Once again the ECB meeting verdict due next Thursday (Mar 7) will be notable not for what the Council does (save for downward tweaks to its projections (Figure 1)) but rather what is said. A fourth successive stable policy decision is unambiguously expected. This will come alongside a reaffirmat
March 1, 2024 10:41 AM UTC
There has been repeated positive EZ news in the form of plunging inflation. This continued in the February numbers, albeit with the 0.2 ppt drops in both headline and core being less that most anticipated and with some hints that core disinflation may be marked. Regardless, the headline, at 2.6%, co