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April 25, 2024 7:04 PM UTC
Bottom Line: The FOMC meets on May 1 and rates look sure to remain at the current 5.25%-5.50% target range. The statement is likely to see some adjustments to reflect recent disappointment on inflation while repeating that more confidence on inflation moving towards target is needed before easing. I
April 24, 2024 6:44 PM UTC
Bank of Canada minutes from the April 10 meeting confirm a greater confidence on inflation falling, though there is disagreement within the Governing Council over when policy easing will become appropriate. There was agreement that easing would probably be gradual given the risks to the outlook and
April 15, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
March retail sales with a 0.7% increase have exceeded expectations despite an expected negative contribution from autos, with sales up by 1.1% both ex autos and in the control group that contributes to GDP, and by 1.0% ex autos and gasoline. This suggest continued consumer momentum entering Q2.
April 5, 2024 2:18 PM UTC
Banxico's recent meeting minutes reveal a split among board members regarding monetary policy, with a 25bps rate cut to 11.0%. Despite progress in curbing inflation, differing views on policy direction persist. Inflation expectations deviate from targets, with potential risks in fiscal policy and wa
April 5, 2024 1:35 PM UTC
Canada’s 2.2k decline in March employment is weaker than expected though needs to be seen alongside strong gains of 40.7k in February and 37.7k in January. The 3-month average of 25k is above the 6-month average of 22k. However with the labor force rising unemployment is trending higher, March’s
April 15, 2024 1:22 PM UTC
We expect March Canadian CPI to move higher to 3.0% yr/yr from 2.8% in February and 2.9% in January, with the monthly data likely to look quite firm after two soft months. However we do expect some modest progress lower in two of the three BoC’s core rates.
May 3, 2024 7:40 AM UTC
Bottom Line: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) announced on May 3 that Turkish CPI ticked up 69.8% annually and 3.2% monthly in April due to increases in transportation, restaurant & hotel and education prices, coupled with the lingering impacts of the wage hikes on the services sector. We feel u
May 3, 2024 5:57 AM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady
May 3, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback continue to drift lower after the less hawkish than expected FOMC. IDR saw the largest gains of 0.46%, followed by KRW 0.45%, SGD 0.44%, PHP 0.4%, CNH 0.39%, MYR 0.38%, THB 0.29%, TWD 0.18% and HKD 0.13%.
USD/CNH is t
May 2, 2024 9:00 PM UTC
USD to get support from US employment report
ISM services should be neutral, but some downside risks
JPY strength to continue long run, but some consolidation may be seen near term
NOK has upside scope despite recent weakness with Norges Bank likely to remain steady